Weekly Hot Take: Liam Lawson Let Go At Goldilocks Timing

Yesterday morning, Yuki Tsunoda was announced as Liam Lawson’s replacement for the remaining 22 races of the Formula 1 season. In the break week between the Chinese GP and the Japanese GP, Tsunoda has taken the 2nd Red Bull Racing seat as Lawson has been swapped to the Racing Bulls team. After only two races of the season, some find it shocking that Lawson was not given more time to adapt. However, the time of the swap was strategic for many reasons, and honestly Red Bull made the right call at the right time.

The curse of the second Red Bull seat truly needs to be studied: in the past 6 years, 5 drivers have held the coveted seat (including Tsunoda). Since Daniel Ricciardo unexpectedly left the team in 2018 to drive for Renault (now Alpine), no driver has been able to successfully keep the seat for more than a few seasons - some fans even joke that Ricciardo started the curse on the seat himself before his transfer, as his career greatly declined after he left Red Bull. In 2019, Pierre Gasly was signed from the junior team Toro Rosso to join Red Bull Racing, but was replaced by former teammate Alex Albon after just 12 races. Albon completed the end of that season with Red Bull and continued in 2020, but was then demoted to reserve driver at the end of that season. In 2021, Sergio Perez joined the lineup next to Max Verstappen for the next four seasons, starting strong but eventually descending into the back of the pack permanently. Liam Lawson took over the 2025 season as the Red Bull second driver but has now been replaced after only two races on the calendar by Racing Bulls driver Yuki Tsunoda. Lawson was axed from the team the fastest of any Red Bull driver, but why did he not last as long as the others; why did Red Bull have no patience for him like they seemed to have for the past second drivers? Furthermore, why did Lawson get cut in a shorter amount of time than other teams’ drivers even when earning the same results?

A frustrated Lawson after two races of underperformance and the looming threat of being dropped by the team. Photo courtesy of PlanetF1.

The first situation to consider is Max Verstappen’s point scoring in the past few years compared to the 2025 season so far. In 2019 and 2020, Verstappen ended the season with more than 200 points, landing him 3rd place in the Driver’s Championship both times. In 2021, Verstappen won 10 out of the 22 races to secure the Driver’s Championship with a total of 395.5 points. He was victorious again in 2022, scoring 454 points after winning 15 of the 22 races, a record-breaking number. In 2023, he clinched the title with 575 points and 19 races won, breaking his own record from the year before (teammate Perez closest behind with 285 points.) Last year, Verstappen scored 437 points to claim his 4th Driver’s Championship, this time with Perez lagging behind in 8th. He is one of the greatest Formula 1 drivers of all time and revered highly for his unique and skillful driving style. However, Verstappen finished P2 and P4 in the first races of this season, meaning that Red Bull needs more production from its second driver. Unfortunately, Liam Lawson’s DNF and P15 finishes put him outside of the points both times. The car does not seem as dominant this year, and even though Verstappen is still performing well, the difficulty of the car could lead to a lower result and cause issues that a failing second driver only adds to. If Red Bull wants to be a constructor that is contending for the championship, they need two drivers that can drive the car in the points in case Verstappen is not dominating the field every single race.

Secondly, the standard at Red Bull is different than at a midfield team that can give a struggling driver a longer leash. For example, last year, Logan Sargeant was axed from Williams Racing after the 15th race. Sargeant scored 1 point for the team in 2023 and none in 2024, and was replaced by reserve driver Franco Colapinto for the back half of the season. With Sargeant crashing the car constantly and finishing out of the points for over half the season, some would compare his situation to Lawson’s current races. However, it is important to realize that Williams is objectively not as competitive as Red Bull, and Red Bull needs maximum points throughout the entire season. Instead of risking the championship for a rookie for such a long time, swapping Tsunoda for Lawson at an earlier date is a strategic decision in terms of the WCC.

Tsunoda standing next to future teammate Max Verstappen: fingers crossed for Red Bull this year! Photo courtesy of GPFans.

This specific week is an extremely strategic time for Tsunoda to both test the car during the off-week and also have his first race in Red Bull to be his home race. The news will foster unimaginable excitement and anticipation in Japan as what was only dreams before becomes reality. Tsunoda’s home race with Red Bull could either be one of the team’s biggest successes or a total flop, depending on if he can drive the car. As many know, Red Bull shapes the car’s design around Verstappen and his specific talent for complicated and risky racing, which is why many drivers cannot adapt to the car. Other teams, such as Ferrari and McLaren, have two “first drivers” and create the car to cater to both’s skills, but whoever holds the second seat at Red Bull is just another driver who must master Verstappen’s special design.

While the change is a massive career boost for Tsunoda, it’s a brutal turn of events for Lawson as he is returned to his previous team after facing major pressure and anxiety about not being able to perform in the Red Bull car. His career is forever affected by the very short and unsuccessful time at Red Bull, after which he will likely not return, causing concerns about future team signings. In my opinion, the move makes total sense for Red Bull’s overall success as a team (as long as Tsunoda performs), but leaves Lawson sitting in his thoughts, contemplating how his large dreams were crushed in so little time. All the drivers are human and deal with so much pressure and frustration just like anyone else, and I want everyone to remember that Lawson did his best and deserves grace and respect just like any other athlete in a top-level sport. Everyone try to enjoy the bye-week, and let’s not be too harsh on Lawson.

Lights out and away we go,

Lucy xx